Supply and demand; Australia as an ageing nation

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

DEMAND: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

A CLEAR AGEING TRAJECTORY

Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 300,000 a year. 30 years ago, the over 65s made up just 11% of our population (one in nine persons). Today the over 65s make up 15% of our population (one in seven). Forecasts project that this cohort will make up 18% in 2027 (one in six). By 2047 one in five Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.

AGEING SOCIETY

Our median age is also increasing. Three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 31.3. Today it is 37.4 and in 2047 it is projected to be just under 40.

85+ POPULATION

The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at a faster rate than the over 65s. In 1987 there were 133,448 Australians aged over 85. Today there are four times as many, and in 2047 there will 14 times as many.

INCREASED LONGEVITY

Not only are there more older people in our nation, but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1987 was 76.3, whereas today it is 81 for a male and 85 for a female. In 2047, it is projected to 89.9.

HEALTH ADVANCEMENTS ARE INCREASING LONGEVITY

The primary enabler of this increased longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure and better public health measures. New and improved medical interventions will also contribute, as will the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of death (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF CENTENARIANS WILL KEEP THE QUEEN BUSY

In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written to Australians turning 100. This year, 2,925 Australians will turn 100 and in 10 years 5,401 will turn 100. In 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 25,938 in the year 2047.

SUPPLY: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

THE CHALLENGE OF SUPPLY

Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.

RATIO OF WORKERS TO RETIREES DECLINING

The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1975 for every person of retirement age there were 7.1 people in the working age population. By 2015 there were just 4.5 people of working age for every individual of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 2.7 people of working age for every individual at retirement age by 2055.

IMPENDING RETIREMENTS

Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 350,000 workers in the aged care sector (estimated in 2012), so this equates to an average of 11,667 retirements per year for the next 15 years. This averages to 972 farewell lunches per month!

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 129,945 workers in the next 10 years. This equates to recruiting 1,083 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 972 retiring staff per month.

That’s a total recruitment goal of 2,055 each month – adding nearly 25,000 individuals to Australia’s aged care workforce each year.

GET IN TOUCH

To find out more about McCrindle's expertise in the aged care industry, or how we can communicate these insights to your team, please get in touch.

External Trends Impacting the NFP Sector in 2017

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

The year 2017 has begun in an environment of perplexed global sentiment. From Brexit to the election of President Trump, the last 9 months have been far from a smooth ride on the world stage, showing a trend towards growing isolationism and increasing uncertainty.

At the national level, for most advanced economies, this uncertainty has bred an increase in nationalism, and a move away from globalisation. In Australia, our response – in part fuelled by our strong work ethic and historic undercurrent – makes us all just want to ‘get on with it’ and get the job done.

For the not for profit sector, this means working hard at strategic initiatives, managing external risk, and taking bold initiatives to engage donors. Our conversations with the NFP sector at this time of year often involves developing strategic brand tracking to measure public engagement, or testing specific brand assets to develop powerful advertising campaigns.

Yet, before delving into the tools of marketing and communications, it is critical that NFPs grasp the trends and undercurrents taking place in the external environment, particularly those that impact donor giving. Here are three trends we feel are critical for the NFP sector to grapple with in 2017:

1. Charity saturation and the need for brand differentiation

According to JBWere’s Cause Report (2016), Australia has 56,894 NFP organisation, one NFP for every 422 individuals. The number of not for profit organisations has doubled every 20 years over the last 60 years – and despite cancelling and closure of some charities by the ACNC, there are still around 10 new charities established every business day.

2. Overall decline in public giving necessitating new fundraising initiatives

Charitable giving has been lower in Australia in 2016 than in years prior. The NAB Charitable Giving Index indicates that national giving is down, by a decrease of 0.3% growth in the 12 months leading up to Aug 2016. This compares to 5.1% growth a year earlier. While there has been resilience in the Australian economy during this time, consumers are more cautious than before, reflected by these figures.

3. Younger generations giving less and seeking experiential engagement

60% of Australian donors agree that charities will face a more difficult future as younger generations don’t seem to volunteer in an ongoing way or give as much as the generations before them (McCrindle Australian Communities Trends Report, 2016). NAB data shows that those aged 15 to 24 give just $135 on average, annually, to charities, compared to those over 65 who give $452 on average.

BEHIND THE TRENDS

A number of these trends are explained by a rise in the cost of living across Australia. Take Sydney housing as a case example of the growing cost of living pressures. In 1975, Sydney house prices were just 5x average annual earnings. By 1995 they had risen to 6x average annual earnings, but today – when taking the average annual salary of $80,000 per year and the median house price of well over $1 million – the average house price is 13x the cost of an average annual full-time salary.

Australian donors are finding it more difficult to give, and to give regularly. As the traditional, dependable, regular donor shrinks as a proportion of all donors, new types of donors are emerging –brand responders and opportunity givers.

ENGAGING AD-HOC DONORS


Brand responders and opportunity givers donate sporadically, in an ad-hoc way. These types of donors are still more likely to give to a single charity or cause than to multiple causes, and have a strong preference for a particularly cause or charity.

Through speaking with more than a dozen NFP experts, 54 donors face to face, and surveying 1,500 Australians, we have identified four key next steps for the charitable sector to take into account in 2017:

1. Develop Multi-Tiered Levels of Engagement

Donors want to be involved with charities, but on their own terms. Rather than fixed contracts, they desire flexible giving and varied involvement. The demand for personalisation is growing as donors expect charity engagement suited to their age and life stage.

2. Build Communities for Social Impact

Australian donors desire to be part of a community of activists that bring about social change. They want to be involved in something bigger than themselves, knowing that together they can make a difference. This is not just ‘clicktivism’, which is seen merely as a form of virtue signalling through web-based activist organisations. Globally, networks like Avaaz.org and Change.org have created opportunities for real-life engagement of social issues, facilitated first through online platforms.

3. Communicate Results in Real-Time

Donors want real-time results and transparent reporting of admin costs. Platforms such as GiveDirectly.org now enable donors to give directly to an individual living in extreme poverty via mobile giving. KIVA, a lending platform facilitating crowd-sourced micro loans across the globe, displays the giving of loans in real-time via an interactive world map. When donors have this type of visibility, trust and engagement follow.

4. Create Fun and Engaging Experiences

The donor of the future is looking for participation and memories created through experiences. Nearly half (46%) of 18-29 year-old Australian donors have volunteered for a charity (compared to 31% of 30+ donors), and they are looking to do so in new, fresh ways. This is not just contained to events and a physical presence at sporting events or music festivals. Many young donors (1 in 4 of those aged 18-29, compared to just 11% of 30+ year-old donors) prefer the creative challenge of conducting their own fundraising events, providing them with the opportunity to harness their unique gifts and talents for a great cause.

-Eliane Miles

FOR MORE INFORMATION

For more information on Australian Donors, see the Australian Communities Trends Report Infographic.

Connect with us if you would like more information on environmental scanning for strategic forecasting.

ABOUT ELIANE MILES

Eliane Miles is a social researcher, trends analyst and Director of Research at the internationally recognised McCrindle. As a data analyst she understands the power of big data to inform strategic direction. Managing research across multiple sectors and locations, she is well positioned to understand the mega trends transforming the workplace, household and consumer landscapes. Her expertise is in telling the story embedded in the data and communicating the insights in visual and practical ways. Download Eliane's professional speaking pack here.

To inquire about Eliane presenting at your next event, please feel free to get in touch.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

Business analysis Wellington 23 million Australian Bureau of Statistics the average aussie VET perth food bank nfp micro focus group water trends of 2017 office space social enquiry Australian Population micro apartments ACT Australian demographics apartments aussie culture trends of 2016 marriages leadership workshop educhat Research Executive emerging technologies daily commute poor logan Christmas presents CBD gen alpha Vocational education demographic trends Aussie education future report intern award Retail New South Wales shopping research data darwin research pack Channel 7 McCrindle Speakers DESTEL optimistic 2016 census results events the great screenage belief commute community event FOMO ageing population change consumer spend Wagga Wagga NBRS Architecture in depth interviews screenage typical australian shopper's pick builders Assistant Store Manager housing market employmer demography culture Bathburst pyrmont rise of local year 12 sydneycity mateship Generation X brisbane community social analysis future of education work mates young australians Australian Trends Social Trend names office 24 million rental stress children vegetarian Geoff Brailey urban taskforce speakers ACF finance growth local wellbeing baby name predictions socialites housing commuters trades jobs 10 years Financial Planning Association christmas healthy future baby name trends average aussie ABS thought leadership purpose lifestyle trends analyst identity sunny days housing affordability generation global retail Territory house price 2013 NFP event tattoos property market research visualisation wages Do It Yourself FPA Black Friday Sales bondi weather hello fresh internships census wolloomooloo dreams christianity Christmas in Australia shifts entrepreneur commuting Jura Coffee Sydney’s south west area media activity Gen X Queensland house price rise Maxim Accounting spirituality suburban living ashley mckenzie NBRS environment census fail professional services wealth inequality vegemite Real Estate environmental scanning Australian Census norwest Black Friday financial dreams capital cities child care know the times huffington post New Zeland government qualitative research workplace culture VET sector showreel video 1968 infographic wall cancelling event language car new york times IT Specialists contiki politics learning styles innovative Andrew Duffin national private wealth woolworths baby boom follow Charlotte twentyseventeen TDE staff dessert wealth Births future royal influence ACT Report Valentine’s Day Tuesday Trends etiquette kate middleton population growth event TED talk generation alpha cancel plans Mount Annan-Currant Hill organisational culture speajer panel capital city Black Friday in Australia rule keeper ultimo sector wide study 2016 census Macquarie University financial independence ACF 2016 statistics local communities victoria Population Clock internship conference insight potts point waverton office opening salary gen z households blaxland baby boomers meals owning a home South Australia HSC cost of living meetings crows nest 2012 case study optus my business awards ACF17 investment friends toys 40 million futurist plans debate stats social researchers work from home socialising school students demographics couple mythbusting domestic CPI average sydneysider suburb budget education future urban sentiments church investor future proofing February 16 sector trends breakfast coffee lovers life Wodonga employers Hornsby Shire Council social commentator Gen Y acf15 australia SA sydney market GPO financial future insights gender visualisation Work place volunteering speakers pack in the media outsourcing faith non profit communication screenagers social trends work-life hills school satisfaction volunteer monarchy millionth Love average Australian marketing Adelaide data analyst Engineering Manager VIC graphs tea research Netflix professional presenters Australian communities royal baby lalor park clothing earn train manly generation Z list casual university Christmas lunch culturally diverse networking population milestone What is food insecurity? media Australia street local community forecast moreton bay brands volunteers learning post rationalism financial planning Tuesday Trend criminal impact keynote speaker personalities NSW travelling conferences future proof communicate training employmee Australian community trends dream dreaming Canberra national crime rates data public speaker ACF2017 paying to work mover and shaker educated cloudy days donate study Kiwi mortgage SMSF leadership increasing densification sydneysider city workplace global financial crisis focus groups christmas 2017 chairty Queensland: QLD marrickville rich sydney property market royal facts parents community engagement goal mobile speaker future of shopping English career hornsby baby name teacher world social growth of sydney dare to dream bureau Performance Sentiment Index ashley fell winter blues long weekend wealth distribution New Zealand ideas 1994 emerging trends google for education report student infographics motivate McCridle australian real estate 1980 home business World Water Day goals mining boom sector wide debt Cobbitty-Leppington balance marriage money Sydney repayments challenge DIY affordable gig economy sunburnt country Res Vis Christmas day weather Hills Shire Council property TAS analysis retirement volunteering data Melbourne Sydney Lifestyle Study ethnography The Daily Edition fears click rain rent charity australian community trends report australian communities trends report transport Royals property price house geomapping aged care puzzle eliane miles national wealth Sydney population snapshot mentor jobs of the future SRE staying in global generations moderators guide quote proactive Mark McCrindle live the dream australians staying home more cold hills shire Australian Dream the lucky country social lives future-proof public transport travel affordability household annual income alpha youth unemployment Duchess of Cambridge tuesday 1975 land of the middle class social change engage gig prince george financial fears relevant schools cultural diveristy housing trends village australian seasons high school McCrindle Speaker celebration Lower Hunter Region apartment real experience unaffordable university degree cars men Western Australia visual social media data visualisation Christmas day Elderslie-Harrington park sydney speaker professional speaker wealth and income distribution home owner survey young people interactive collaboration business index low density high density Northern Beaches census results curiosity care support divorce gold coast narcissism customer bus social researcher learner priorities demographer not for profit research millenials social impact stay home family workshop storytelling middle class resilience WA NEETs brand experience australian social research Christmas data baby names report offenders Myth Willowdale Northern Beaches Christian School group session giving Tasmania ferry high density living food insecurity careers society trends Financial Planning Week poker master social commentary work generational trends medicine slideshare high density apartments collaborative responsive define census data donation sydney metro buildings recap sydneysiders families Scouts NT TED leader millennials urban living index house prices cash entrepreneurial professional education research daily telegraph renting 24,000,000 public holiday Australia Day Northern beaches Event global tv research on coffee presentation wedding summer digital economy James Ward Australia Day 2017 holiday PSI public speaking news aged care food choice workers authenticity who is generation z google economy friendship supply and demand Australian schools mccrindle research mccrinlde anzac Christchurch parenting earnings social shifts easter safe the hills shire baby names schools students christian tips REIV Conference relational housing growth states new office survey design tableau business performance changing face of sydney education sector workforce not for profit Education Future Forum social analyst economic Channel Seven energy 2017 father's day demographic education Word Up social issues Kirsten Brewer media release researcher Australians cultural diversity ageing neutral bay sydney event megatrends urban development research report census 2016 resource rising house prices employment the changing face of cica royal family mccrindle tea happiness eliane sun 2015 future of work population map faux-ciliser 2016 holidays ease of travel communities fresh teach Northern Territory cancelling plans Aussies sustainable online organisations Gen Z Expert sports mythbusters digital US Hunter Valley omnibus menai tertiary education Crime Rates publication Generation Y pharmacies australian communities forum newspaper online shopping equip SMART REIV National Conference mother's day Australian Communities Trends Real Estate Institute of Victoria 2020 hunger shbc selfie urban living #censusfail cost litter suburbs school baby the australian dream conference speaker Financial Planning Association of Australia earning financial research services Caregiver hobart professional development coffee award winner investing skills society wealth and income January 26th winter mccrindle presentations women cooking mccrindle in the media living market research world youth day weekly earnings entertainment renter of the future Sydney Hills Business Chamber innovation group townhouses ipswich Deaths unemployment hopes consumerism greatness trend tuesday Australian Families EFF The ABC of XYZ pharmacy Skilling Australian Home technology product participants grave decision Christmas research religion Mark McCrindle in the media forecasting TEDx Speaker generations teachers residents charities media commentary 2014 Jura Australia entrepreneurs of today divorce rate crime overcast faux-cilising McCrindle Keynote Speakers youth population System's Architect results small business forum personal growth property development TEDx home ownership easy rider younger generations Sydney keynote speaker income demographic transformations story not-for-profit communications JOMO year 7 students conference presentation infographic program going out growing population faux-cilise social research the hills thrive baby names australia report engagement Merry Christmas wage teaching optus Christmas season social life emerging generations princess charlotte teleworking grandparents keynote internet state brand cartodb Research Director learn Lower Hunter trend deloitte sydney hills "know the times" shopping centre

Archive