Supply and demand; Australia as an ageing nation

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

DEMAND: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

A CLEAR AGEING TRAJECTORY

Australia is experiencing a baby boom, with births exceeding 300,000 a year. 30 years ago, the over 65s made up just 11% of our population (one in nine persons). Today the over 65s make up 15% of our population (one in seven). Forecasts project that this cohort will make up 18% in 2027 (one in six). By 2047 one in five Australians (20%) will be aged over 65.

AGEING SOCIETY

Our median age is also increasing. Three decades ago the median age of an Australian was 31.3. Today it is 37.4 and in 2047 it is projected to be just under 40.

85+ POPULATION

The over 85s, where there is an even greater need for aged care services, are growing at a faster rate than the over 65s. In 1987 there were 133,448 Australians aged over 85. Today there are four times as many, and in 2047 there will 14 times as many.

INCREASED LONGEVITY

Not only are there more older people in our nation, but Australians are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy at birth in 1987 was 76.3, whereas today it is 81 for a male and 85 for a female. In 2047, it is projected to 89.9.

HEALTH ADVANCEMENTS ARE INCREASING LONGEVITY

The primary enabler of this increased longevity gain has been the health system rather than individual behaviour. Life expectancy increases will continue because of improved medical technologies, public health infrastructure and better public health measures. New and improved medical interventions will also contribute, as will the improved survivability rates of major illnesses and cancers.

A decade ago, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were the 6th largest causes of death in Australia. Today they are the 3rd leading causes of death with the number of deaths having more than doubled to 9,864. Over the same period of time, deaths due to the first and second causes of death (heart disease and brain disease) have been decreasing. If today’s current trend continues, by 2021 dementia and Alzheimer’s disease will be the leading cause of death in Australia.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF CENTENARIANS WILL KEEP THE QUEEN BUSY

In 1952, the year that Queen Elizabeth II became sovereign, 40 letters of congratulations would need to have been written to Australians turning 100. This year, 2,925 Australians will turn 100 and in 10 years 5,401 will turn 100. In 30 years the number of congratulatory letters written to Australians turning 100 will increase to 25,938 in the year 2047.

SUPPLY: AUSTRALIA AS AN AGEING NATION

THE CHALLENGE OF SUPPLY

Not only is there an increasing demand on the services provided by the aged care sector with the growing number of over 85s, there is also a workforce supply challenge.

RATIO OF WORKERS TO RETIREES DECLINING

The ageing population will place greater demands for productivity on the labour force. In 1975 for every person of retirement age there were 7.1 people in the working age population. By 2015 there were just 4.5 people of working age for every individual of retirement age, and this is projected to decline to just 2.7 people of working age for every individual at retirement age by 2055.

IMPENDING RETIREMENTS

Because of the high median age of an employee in the aged care sector, half of the aged care workforce will be of retirement age in 15 years. There are 350,000 workers in the aged care sector (estimated in 2012), so this equates to an average of 11,667 retirements per year for the next 15 years. This averages to 972 farewell lunches per month!

If we are to keep the current ratio of aged care workers to people aged over 85 in our nation, we need to add 129,945 workers in the next 10 years. This equates to recruiting 1,083 new workers per month, in addition to replacing the 972 retiring staff per month.

That’s a total recruitment goal of 2,055 each month – adding nearly 25,000 individuals to Australia’s aged care workforce each year.

GET IN TOUCH

To find out more about McCrindle's expertise in the aged care industry, or how we can communicate these insights to your team, please get in touch.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare


Last 150 Articles


Tags

forum Aussie Northern beaches Event follow post rationalism home owner australian communities forum families households cancelling plans pyrmont crime future researcher program potts point shopper's pick Bathburst sydney speaker earnings gen alpha sustainable trends of 2016 home Tuesday Trend tattoos group session faux-cilise baby name Canberra group aussie culture wage infographic vegemite global generations the changing face of shbc baby boomers business index digital offenders 2014 friends motivate young australians generation Tuesday Trends qualitative research social impact men emerging technologies New Zeland vegetarian skills curiosity Northern Territory australian social research faux-cilising energy entrepreneur 2012 1980 dessert suburb hobart suburbs communities Territory Australian Families professional housing affordability Australian Bureau of Statistics Myth Channel 7 facts high density Australian Trends wealth and income eliane property price ideas university degree list huffington post Research Executive staying in house prices Christmas season global financial crisis Valentine’s Day education apartment Scouts builders Aussies australian communities trends report Real Estate Institute of Victoria Crime Rates new york times survey Generation Y Melbourne graphs FOMO darwin thrive rent research data training millionth publication trend tuesday rich presentation demographics office space Assistant Store Manager national wealth divorce trend workshop dare to dream aged care puzzle Australia Day 2017 youth fears shifts grandparents the australian dream teachers tea sunny days infographic wall engage family learning social researcher hills shire participants social research wealth and income distribution future proofing communications optimistic ashley fell visualisation optus housing trends tv speakers mccrindle tea hello fresh winter blues population mccrindle research staff middle class schools students tableau real video dreaming baby boom safe cold New South Wales waverton going out typical australian marrickville mining boom market research water conference NEETs cost of living ABS Love customer anzac employment 23 million toys internships insight volunteers property market future proof Australian schools investment data CBD meals low density WA NSW investor mythbusters small business baby criminal 1994 media commentary storytelling lifestyle internship selfie prince george baby name predictions public speaking culture recap brand experience Christmas lunch cooking The ABC of XYZ product high school Mark McCrindle environmental scanning New Zealand sunburnt country rising house prices stats consumerism earning deloitte baby names equip goals HSC mortgage women 1975 study google for education logan cartodb young people panel events slideshare high density living report millenials statistics presentations conference presentation social lives capital city DESTEL communicate professional speaker internet parents weather balance Financial Planning Association of Australia jobs narcissism 2020 meetings annual income sentiments rental stress in depth interviews cloudy days urban social analysis social life aged care Sydney conference speaker personal growth sector research services politics work tuesday menai not-for-profit church emerging generations government economy relevant royal residents cancelling event Australian Home cultural diversity organisational culture woolworths capital cities population milestone TDE focus groups paying to work Education Future Forum ethnography English SA leadership workshop winter "know the times" priorities online shopping social media Financial Planning Week summer responsive 24 million celebration local spend earn buildings research visualisation IT Specialists budget social hornsby social researchers wellbeing innovative thought leadership personalities mobile weekly earnings authenticity daily telegraph increasing densification careers Gen Y financial housing school community engagement growing population Australian Census Adelaide ease of travel future-proof challenge happiness demographer keynote renting world alpha Word Up entrepreneurial Wagga Wagga consumer population growth national crime rates princess charlotte relational property parenting Australian Communities Trends rule keeper EFF urban living teleworking communication engagement collaborative generation Z sports generation alpha mother's day leader religion food poor environment social commentator gen z easter brand states Births media release pharmacies sydneysiders sector wide house price rise Channel Seven clothing rise of local christianity Royals holidays google seasons marriages trends analyst experience proactive wedding Australia Day identity leadership Geoff Brailey educhat FPA social enquiry house price royal family fresh Deaths long weekend urban living index mateship generations local communities household village newspaper debt cash entertainment names daily commute snapshot socialising Generation X forecast mythbusting sector wide study teacher salary Queensland Australian communities father's day know the times royal baby innovation South Australia social trends educated Wellington charity transport REIV National Conference tips etiquette litter renter of the future rain student christmas finance language holiday Caregiver norwest community 2016 ACF intern Northern Beaches Christian School social change Real Estate ageing population The Daily Edition McCrindle Speakers social shifts housing growth monarchy healthy future REIV Conference keynote speaker commute business growth cancel plans students Engineering Manager plans sun networking Christmas presents workplace culture investing easy rider school students unemployment Merry Christmas bureau crows nest office opening VIC wealth Sydney keynote speaker organisations 40 million ashley mckenzie area JOMO geomapping teaching focus group System's Architect life child care jobs of the future stay home bondi moderators guide economic futurist supply and demand census learner interactive state World Water Day moreton bay research mccrindle Population Clock wolloomooloo eliane miles year 7 hopes case study ACF 2016 Australians social commentary professional development living dream twentyseventeen society financial dreams average aussie kate middleton Western Australia university blaxland gender new office brands Kirsten Brewer Christchurch February 16 owning a home national private wealth education research education sector repayments tertiary education click world youth day emerging trends data analyst workforce 24,000,000 Do It Yourself children NT domestic demographic affordability work mates society trends socialites survey design school satisfaction ipswich baby name trends Wodonga ageing office results change trends wages megatrends public holiday conferences wealth distribution perth schools workplace analysis income ACT 1968 ultimo house demographic transformations royal influence Kiwi generational trends Queensland: QLD 2017 future of work unaffordable define Tasmania townhouses city victoria shopping acf15 in the media learning styles sydneycity couple cars home ownership debate quote Charlotte January 26th resilience financial independence Netflix Hornsby Shire Council 2015 2013 mover and shaker mccrindle in the media mentor optus my business awards not for profit coffee retirement media year 12 Australian demographics goal career divorce rate omnibus gold coast Australian Dream greatness Res Vis learn media activity DIY data visualisation land of the middle class Duchess of Cambridge manly resource award news neutral bay high density apartments faux-ciliser medicine outsourcing teach education future report 10 years suburban living housing market event Gen X australia urban taskforce Social Trend work-life future of education online cost marriage Northern Beaches insights brisbane marketing sydney event forecasting friendship lalor park visual millennials employers Financial Planning Association global nfp PSI youth unemployment TAS education future non profit collaboration entrepreneurs of today financial future australians staying home more trends of 2017 overcast poker master research pack demographic trends SMSF affordable GPO technology population map community event pharmacy

Archive