The Top 5 Trends for 2017

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Rise of Local

As our cities grow, Australians are adopting approaches we see in other mega cities where a local rather than a citywide identity emerges. Australia’s capitals are becoming cities of villages or regions where residents live, work and interact in a part of their city rather than the traditional commuter approach of suburb living but CBD working. The year ahead will see the rise of the walkable community, the ongoing gathering at the local shopping strip and the growth in local entertainment precincts rather than the city-centre destinations that used to dominate. As unit living increases along with population growth, Australians are looking to meet the timeless human needs of relational health and community connection in their geographical context. From knowing the local barista to supporting the local grocer, increased events in local parks, increased patronage at local clubs and venues and growth in volunteering to support community groups, 2017 will see the rise of local.

Growth of Lifestyle Cities

Last year Sydney hit the population milestone of 5 million and Melbourne is not only growing faster but it is seeing house price increases exceed that of Sydney. The size and associated costs of living in Australia’s global cities is bringing to the fore the benefits of Australia’s lifestyle cities. These are the regional cities that have the employment, shopping and housing options of the big cities but populations not in the millions but the more sustainable hundred thousand or so. In NSW, cities like Newcastle and Wollongong have reinvented themselves from the industrial cities of the 20th Century to be innovation hubs, university towns, and small business friendly 21st Century lifestyle cities. With property prices a third less than Sydney, it is little surprise that these cities are growing at twice the national population growth rate and are seeing recent house price growth exceed that of Sydney. Beyond these cities, regional centres like Wagga Wagga, Bathurst and Albury Wodonga are also growing faster than the national average. In Victoria the lifestyle cities include Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat and are the state’s fastest growing regions while in Queensland the lifestyle cities include the very fast growing Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast as well as the inland city of Toowoomba and in the West the cities of Bunbury and Busselton make the list.

DIY Everything

Australia has always had a strong can-do attitude and a weekend DIY project in a property-obsessed nation is part of the suburban life. However with tips and tutorials just a few clicks away, and a how-to YouTube video on everything, Australians are extending the DIY approach beyond just handyman skills. From DIY legal processes like property conveyancing, to arranging complex holidays once the domain of travel agents, to the increased consulting of “Dr Google”, Australians are doing their own research and planning in an effort to save money and solve their own problems. In an era where there is an app for everything from instrument tuning to wedding invitation designing, Australians feel more empowered through technology, more informed through online resources and more motivated to save money and so 2017 will see the ongoing rise of DIY everything.

The Gig-Economy

In the span of a generation, the proportion of Australians working on a part-time or casual basis has tripled from 1 in 10 to more than 3 in 10 today. However in the last year or so, online services like Uber, Airtasker, Freelancer and Deliveroo have ushered in the “gig-economy” and more of this generation will end up being freelancers, contractors or contingent workers than ever before. Recent research shows that a third of the national workforce currently participates in contingent work, and more than 3 in 4 employers believe that it will be the norm for people to pick up extra work through job related websites or apps. Technology and new employment options have made it possible, businesses looking to manage their staff costs and liabilities are driving it and Generations Y and Z who value variety, flexibility and opportunity over job security will make the gig economy mainstream in 2017.

Post rationalism

Last year the electorates of the UK and the US showed the political class not to take their votes for granted and that bombarding people with information and expert opinion will not in itself change minds. 2017 will see the continued rise of the post rational era where it is the heart- not just the head that influences customers, staff members and voters. The 2016 Word of the Year was “post-truth” showing that the power to influence is not in the data and statistics but in the story and social validation. Note that this is not an era of “irrationalism” in that society has more knowledge available and Australians are increasingly more formally educated- rather, it is an era where the rationale alone does not alone decide the matter. Those who can communicate with an emotional, visual and relational connection will do better than those who just have a rational connection.

Watch Mark's full interview on The Daily Edition here

The New Australian Dream

Thursday, September 01, 2016


Owning your own four bedroom house on a decent block of land with a big backyard and outdoor swimming pool used to be the quintessential 'Great Australian Dream'. But with rising property prices and increased living costs, that dream is being redefined.

what is the Average Australian Profile?

The average full time annual income in Australia is $80,000, which is bumped up a bit because of high income earners. Even though we are living longer now than a generation ago, the average retirement age is little changed, at 61.5 years.

The cost of housing is up with average rent prices per week at $485/week and the average house price (capital city) is $765,730. In Melbourne it is well above this and in Sydney it is around $1 million. This is where the challenge is for Australians: 40 years ago the average house price was around 5 time’s average earnings and now you can see it is almost 10 times the average annual fulltime earnings.

Other than affordability, what else are Aussies looking for?

Lifestyle is key. People are opting to live in higher density areas for the sake of convenience and location- within close proximity to transport, restaurants – the café culture as it has been called. Our Urban Living Index shows a strong correlation between the most urban/densified suburbs and those with the highest liability ratings.

Australians are opting for a lifestyle of Minimalism - we are 'decluttering' our lives and putting more value on the intangibles like travel. Generation Y aren’t opting for a big home with garages to store all their stuff but more of a focus on the easy-livability of apartment living. Indeed many baby boomers are downsizing from their larger homes in the suburbs to this style of living too.

Renting, as opposed to buying, what some of the benefits?

The ability to change locations easily is well regarded – the average Australian renter stays just 1.8 years per home. Our research shows that 1 in 3 renters are actually 'choice renters' and they choose to rent for lifestyle reasons, not primarily for affordability reasons. These choice renters are twice more likely to be living in medium and high density housing than the average Australian and they are almost 10 years younger than the average Australian. The ability to upsize and downsize easily and the flexibility to travel for extended periods of time is a driver for them. ‘Rentvesting’ is also becoming a ‘thing’. This is where people choose to rent in an area they like, but buy somewhere more affordable and use this as an investment

Generation Y are struggling to attain the Great Australian Dream – are they going to be ok?

There is a challenge emerging of "generational inequity" as shown by this infographic:

Gen Y’s have the least wealth of the working generations and their proportion of Australia’s wealth is less than half their demographic share, while the Baby Boomers who are a quarter of the population, own more than half of Australia’s wealth. (More information on this topic can be found here)

This is why Gen Y is reinventing the Aussie Dream and while they do still like the idea of owning something of their own, it is not just the big home with the back yard in the suburbs. But many in this generation will be absolutely fine thanks to the massive intergenerational wealth transfer set to happen in the next 20 years as those aged over 65 transfer much of their total wealth of $2.5 trillion.

A Snapshot of Australia's Housing Market

Monday, August 01, 2016

Owning a home is the great Australian dream, but with 30% of Australians renting, could our love affair with bricks and mortar be turning sour? Our Aussie states go head to head as we compare affordability for buyers and renters.

How many Australians own their home outright and how many have a mortgage?

2 in 5 (40%) Australians are trying to own their own home and slowly pay it off, with the smallest category of all, 28%, being lucky enough to have paid off their home in full.

How do the capital cities compare when it comes to renting an apartment?

As you would expect, Sydney ranks as the most expensive city, costed at about $500 per week for your average apartment. Amazingly, Darwin is up there as well due to more more demand than supply and with not the same investment in stock. Meanwhile, if you move down to Hobart, it is almost half that, paying about $270 per week, and Adelaide not much beyond that at $370.

What if you are looking to buy a home, how much is that?

Sydney is still leading Australia by a long way with almost a $1,000,000 median house price. A distant second is Melbourne, at over $800,000. If you look down to Hobart, the median house price is $357,000, so that means using the money spent on a home in Sydney, you could buy about 3 homes in Hobart – and a pretty good lifestyle down there as well.

Looking at Australia as a whole, what is the percentage of apartments to houses?

About 3 in 4 Australians live in a detached home, so that’s traditionally been the Aussie dream. Then you have about 14% who live in apartments and 10% in townhouses. We are starting to see a change though, with a quarter of Australians now living in medium to high density housing. At the moment if you look at new housing approvals, it's 1 in 3, so it has gone up. If you look at Sydney and Melbourne, 2 in 3 new housing approvals are in medium to high density living. So we are starting to get more densified, with an increase in vertical communities compared to the more traditional horizontal ones, and that’s where we are headed in the future.

Watch Mark's full interview on The Daily Edition here

Which Australian major city has the best weather on Australia Day?

Monday, January 25, 2016

Australians love to celebrate Australia Day in the sun. We attend the thousands of events taking place in every suburb and council area right around Australia. It’s a relaxed day which we spend having a picnic, at the beach or watching the fireworks.

But, we know that rain can spoil all these festivities and the atmosphere around them. So which major Australian capital city has the best Australia Day weather?

An analysis of Australia Day weather data from the Bureau of Meteorology since 1900 has yielded some intriguing results over the 116 years.

Perth's Australia Day's are hardly ever rainy

Perth arguably has the best Australia Day weather, experiencing just 8 Australia Day's of rain since 1900 with an average of 2.9mm of rain falling on these days. It also has the highest average maximum temperature at 30.4°C with 61 of the past 116 Australia Days above 30°C.

In comparison, Sydney has experienced 51 rainy Australia Day's, Melbourne with 28, Brisbane, 41 and Adelaide, 17.


Australia Day temperatures most consistent in Sydney

Sydney may have recorded the rainiest Australia Day's, but when it rains, it rains significantly less than it does Melbourne and Brisbane.

The temperatures in Sydney are much more comfortable for a day out, with average temperatures of 26.6°C over the past 116 years. Sydney has only experienced 2 Australia Days above 40°C and 13 above 30°C compared with 61 and 4 for Perth respectively.


Melbourne has had the coolest maximum temperatures

On the other hand, Melbourne experiences a range of temperatures, with the lowest average maximum temperature out of the 5 major capital cities, at 25.9°C. It has experienced 21 Australia Day's where the mercury has failed to rise up 20°C but there have been 28 days of temperatures above 30°C over the past 116 years.




Brisbane experiences rainy Australia Day’s

In Brisbane, when it rains, it pours, on Australia Day as it has the wettest rainy days out of all the capital cities, with average rainfall of 22.7mm on their rainy days, compared with 5.5mm in Adelaide and just 2.9mm in Perth.

Brisbane and Adelaide have experienced average temperatures of 29.9°C and 28.5°C respectively, with 57 days reaching above 30°C in Brisbane and 39 days in Adelaide.



Depending on your preference …

So what’s the best capital city to celebrate your Australia Day? Based on the past 116 years of data, if you’re hoping for a day that feels slightly cooler, Sydney has been typically greeting Australians with a 20°C range in temperatures, but higher likelihood of wetter weather. If you’re looking for a classic, hot Australian summer’s day, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide is the destination where temperatures could reach above 30°C. Melbourne is probably the most unpredictable, where your Australia Day could take a chance at being hot like summer should be, or cold and wet instead.

What attendees will hear at the Melbourne Australian Communities Forum

Thursday, November 26, 2015

The Australian Communities Forum is happening again in Melbourne in just a week's time!

DOWNLOAD THE FULL EVENT PROGRAM HERE


Attendees are in for an excellent, informative and interactive day. Check out our event line up below:

KEYNOTE SPEAKERS

ELIANE MILES | Research Manager, McCrindle

Australian communities in context

To introduce the day, Eliane will outline some of the key factors defining 21st century Australian communities and set some context around this national communities’ research.







MARK MCCRINDLE | Principal, McCrindle Research

Australian Community Trends Report; Results from the national research study

This inaugural national study reveals is based on extensive research of the Australian public as well as current donors and also national research of staff and leaders working in Australia’s not-for-profit sector. This session will reveal the fascinating results including the National Giving Macro Segments, Giving Blockers and enablers, the giving sentiment matrix, donor priorities, the donor participation scale, the engagement hierarchy and the sector’s Net Promoter Score. In addition to sharing the key insights, attendees will be given practical steps in how to strategically respond to these illuminating findings.


GEORGE SAVVIDES | CEO, Medibank Private & Chairman of World Vision Australia

The change journey; leading teams and engaging workplace communities through cultural transformation

In his thirteen years as CEO of Medibank Private, George has led the organisation from government ownership to public listing, and this IPO was the second largest in Australia’s history. He has recently transitioned this organisation which has a customer base of 3.9 million Australians to new headquarters with a layout design to create a collaborative workplace. As chair of World Vision Australia, he has also given governance to one of Australia’s best known charities in these times of unprecedented change.


CLAIRE MADDEN | Research Director, McCrindle

Understanding the power of collaborative communities

Responding to the megatrends transforming Australia will ensure that organisations remain relevant in these changing times. From demographic change to generational transitions, from new technologies to emerging consumers, communities are changing and so is the workforce. This introductory session will give leaders insights into how to respond to this and create a culture of collaborative innovation.




REBECCA KOTOW | Head of Social Impact & Community Investment, NAB

Innovating and adapting to influence change and impact communities 

In her role as head of social impact and community investment at NAB, Rebecca and her team are responsible for micro-finance, impact investment and the community engagement of one of Australia’s largest organisations. NAB is regarded as a leading innovator in not only the communities’ space, but in workplace engagement as well. Their new headquarters at Docklands and the phenomenal work space community that is The Village, along with the employee engagement programs that Rebecca leads are all great examples of people-focused innovation.


FAY CALDERONE | Lawyer and partner at DibbsBarker

Engaging workplace communities

Fay is a legal specialist in workplace and employment engagement. In this session she will outline how to create engaging workplace communities and effectively manage cultural change. An increasingly central community in Australian society is the workplace community and Fay will deliver insights into how to harness talent, drive purpose and alignment, and create a thriving and healthy workplace.





SARAH PRESCOTT | Head of Marketing and Communications, Thankyou

The Thankyou story

Thankyou is an Aussie success story, not only because of the growth of this water, food and products company, but the business model it utilises to impact and fund impoverished communities. In this inspiring closing session, Sarah will outline the Thankyou model for empowering everyday Australians to change the world through simple choices in their everyday life. She will share what has made Thankyou a household name through creating effective, fresh and motivating marketing that cut through the noise and achieved something great.



THE AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY TRENDS INFOGRAPHIC

At the event, we will also be launching the results from the sector-wide, not-for-profit study. Mark McCrindle will deliver a presentation on the Australian Community Trends Report and will share the results from the national research study. This inaugural national study is based on extensive research of the Australian public as well as current donors and also national research of staff and leaders working in Australia’s not-for-profit sector. All delegates will receive a copy of the Australian Community Trends Infographic, visualising the results:

BUZZ GROUP SPEAKERS


TIM SURGENOR | Founding Director, DataMotive

Creating compassionate commercialism

One of Australia’s most important community trends is the rise of social enterprises; entrepreneurial organisations which operate to empower communities and make a difference for those in need. As the founder of DataMotive, Tim will share his story of building a business that transforms communities as well as highlighting how other organisations can utilise “impact-sourcing” and ethical buying to not only manage their costs but support ultra-poor communities.



GREG LOW | Co-founder, R2L

The power of visual story telling

Greg is an expert at helping organisations tell their story, especially through visual communications. With professional skills both behind the camera as well as in shaping campaigns and advising not-for-profits, he has a depth of experience in helping organisations create engaging content and telling their brand story.



NICHOLAS BOLTO | Managing Director, Olympus Solutions

The trust factor: giving confidence to donors 

Nic is a not-profit consultant who developed The Difference Index, an annual measure which assists in credentialing charities and their impact. Nic will review what donors are looking for and ways you can qualify your marketing claims to increase donor confidence



HEATH MCSOLVIN | Director of Fundraising, CBM 

Retaining long term donors while attracting Gen Y and Z

As Director of Fundraising at CBM Australia, Heath has worked across the mainly disciplines of fundraising for more than 20 years. During that time, he’s seen the changing face of donors - how to acquire them and how to keep them! Heath will share with you some of the insights he has found in finding new ways to recruit donors and important pathways that need to be built to keep them.



JAMES MAINE and NICK HARRINGTON-JOHNSON | Monash University

The power of big data to focus and grow organisations 

James and Nicholas are Econometrics Honours students at Monash University and they have a head for numbers and a heart of not-for-profits. While organisations collect more data than ever, there are simple ways to exploit this data gold mine with traditional statistical techniques and alternatives such as text mining and sentiment analysis. In this session, they will illustrate some examples of cropping, visualising and analysing data and texts from socio media and online data sources.



NICK DUBE | Founder & Creative Director, Heartburst Digital 

Digital Storytelling and the donor experience 

As the founder and creative director of Heartburst Digital, Nick is an expert at creating a compelling brand story through online channels. Based on his extensive experience with not-for-profits, he will give insights in how little online changes can make a big communications difference.



ASHLEY MCKENZIE | Team Leader of Communications, McCrindle 

Social media tips and tricks 

In an era of message-saturation, the challenge for organisations is to deliver quality content that will cut through the noise. In this session, Ashley McKenzie, who leads the communications strategy at McCrindle, will share tips and tactics on how to best influence through social media and which platforms engage different communities.

CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE YOUR TICKET TO THE MELBOURNE AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITIES FORUM

FOR A VIDEO RECAP OF OUR SYDNEY EVENT ON 13TH NOVEMBER 2015:

Australian Communities Forum, Sydney November 13, 2015 from Power Creative on Vimeo.

The Australian Communities Forum Video

Monday, November 23, 2015

On Friday 13th November, McCrindle Research and R2L&Associates were proud to present the Sydney Australian Communities Forum. The ACF featured 13 brilliant speakers and 4 jam-packed buzz-group sessions. Overall it was a brilliant and packed day. Thank you to all the expert speakers who contributed and those who attended and shared their thoughts and expertise.

Check out this video from Power Creative for a recap of the day and some of the highlights:

Australian Communities Forum, Sydney November 13, 2015 from Power Creative on Vimeo.


We then heard from Mark McCrindle on the Australian Community Trends Report where he shared the results from the national research study. This inaugural national study is based on extensive research of the Australian public as well as current donors and also national research of staff and leaders working in Australia’s not-for-profit sector.Some of these results included the National Giving Macro Segments, Giving Blockers and Enablers, the Giving Sentiment Matrix, Donor Priorities, the Donor Participation Scale, the Engagement Hierarchy, and the sector's Net Promoter Score. All delegates were given a copy of the Australian Community Trends Infographic, visualising the results below. Image of Mark by Power Creative.

Melbourne Australian Communities Forum 2015


We are now busily preparing for our Melbourne Australian Communities Forum, on Thursday 3rd December 2015. Our keynote speakers include:

View the full program here.


The Australian Communities Forum Sydney Recap

Monday, November 16, 2015

Last Friday, McCrindle Research and R2L&Associates were proud to present the Sydney Australian Communities Forum. The ACF featured 13 brilliant speakers and 4 jam-packed sessions.


Claire Madden opened the event with a session on understanding the power of collaborative communities. She gave a snapshot of our changing communities, how we can understand and interpret the emerging generations and best utilise the power of collaborative communities.

Image by Power Creative


We then heard from Mark McCrindle on the Australian Community Trends Report where he shared the results from the national research study. This inaugural national study is based on extensive research of the Australian public as well as current donors and also national research of staff and leaders working in Australia’s not-for-profit sector.

Image by Power Creative


Mark’s session revealed the fascinating results including the National Giving Macro Segments, Giving Blockers and Enablers, the Giving Sentiment Matrix, Donor Priorities, the Donor Participation Scale, the Engagement Hierarchy, and the sector's Net Promoter Score. All delegates were given a copy of the Australian Community Trends Infographic, visualising the results:

R2L & Associates co-founder Jon Rose then shared the implications of these findings on the not-for-profit sector and attendees were given practical steps on how to strategically respond to these illuminating findings.

Image by Power Creative



Our keynote speakers

Partner and lawyer at DibbsBarker Fay Calderone shared key insights on how to create engaging workplace communities, and that inspiration, vision and motivation is key. Fay reminded us that in an organisation, culture will eat compliance for breakfast every time, and reiterated the need for us to build healthy and values-based workplace culture.

Image by Power Creative



Glen Gerreyn from the Hopefull Institute spoke brilliantly on the need for hope, inspiration and motivation in our teams and lives. Glen reminded us that we need to have more dreams than memories, that failing is a part of the process and encouraged us to fail forward.

Image by Power Creative



Amanda Rose from Western Sydney Women shared how we can be strategic connectors in our online and offline worlds, and how our attitude can make or break our cause.

Image by Power Creative



Equipping our delegates

The Australian Communities Forum was an interactive day based around an innovative format. After a hearty buffet lunch, delegates participated in a number of 15 minute practical buzz groups to be equipped with practical insights about engaging their communities.

Creating compassionate commercialism, Tim Surgenor, DataMotive

The power of visual storytelling, Greg Low, R2L&Associates

Using brand to engage your community, Fran Avon, Wesley Mission

Transforming communities through cultural change, Karen James, On-Purpose Hub

Putting care back into community through quality CRM, Justin Yoon, AlpaSys

Data visualisation – bringing research data to life, Ben Duffin, McCrindle


To further explore the research component of the Australian Communities Trends Report, our Future communities workshop presented the results from the environmental scan of the not-for-profit sector, where a panel of experts gave an overview of the emerging trends, challenges and opportunities which will impact Australian communities overt the decade ahead.



It was also a privilege to have Sarah Prescott, head of marketing and communications at Thankyou wrap up our conference and share with us about the inspiring Thankyou story and the journey her organisation has been on. She inspired our delegates to know the why behind what they do, and challenged us with ‘who says we have to do things the way they have been done before’?




Overall it was a brilliant and packed day. Thank you to all the expert speakers who contributed and those who attended and shared their thoughts and expertise.

Melbourne Australian Communities Forum 2015


We are now busily preparing for our Melbourne Australian Communities Forum, on the 3rd December 2015. Our keynote speakers include:

Watch this space for the program, which will be released very soon!

The Changing Face of Melbourne

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Melbourne is booming with its population set to overtake Sydney as Australia’s biggest city in the next few decades. It’s Australia’s multicultural, hospitality and sporting heart and the fastest growing city in Australia.

By 2056, it could reach 9,000,000 residents and become the nation’s biggest city. While 1 in 4 Australians live in Victoria, three quarters of them live in Melbourne. The many suburbs and tribes that make up Victoria’s capitol are evolving in ways our grandparents could never have predicted. 

More than half of all new housing approvals are in the medium or high density housing so the future actually will be for the vertical communities rather than the horizontal sprawl in the past. Compared to the rest of Australia, Melbourne has a young population with an average age of 36 years compared to the Australian average of 37. 

Residents in East Melbourne have the city’s highest income of $1,989, while 75% of people in Parkville have university degrees. 64% of Sandhurst residents are married, while Carlton only have 16% married couples. The motorcar is king in the west, with residents in Plumpton owning 2.6 cars per household. Culturally diverse, vibrant & picture perfect, Melbourne has a very bright future. 

Watch Mark McCrindle in the three part series on Channel 7 below: 

Part One:

Part Two:

Part Three:

The Australian Communities Forum

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

The Australian Communities Forum is happening again in Sydney and Melbourne 2015!

The ACF exists to help organisations understand and connect with their communities. From local, staff, constituent, membership, customer and special interest communities, this forum is focused on how to build, shape and engage communities in all their diversity.

BOOK YOUR EARLY BIRD TICKET TO THE SYDNEY #ACF15 HERE

BOOK YOUR EARLY BIRD TICKET TO THE MELBOURNE #ACF15 HERE


Whether you’re part of a community-based organisation, a charity, a government agency or a commercial organisation with a community focus, the Australian Communities Forum will deliver the latest information in an interactive format, with innovative local examples, and the sharing of great ideas.

At the one day Australian Communities Forum you will hear:

  • Results from the Australian Communities National Research study
  • Case studies of innovative community engagement projects
  • Practical, best practice workshops providing innovative strategies to equip and empower
  • Keynote sessions on volunteer engagement, motivating teams, generational change, segmentation engagement and effective public and media communication strategies.

Stay tuned for more information on guest keynote speakers, the program and more!

Keep up to date with The Australian Communities Forum 2015 on Facebook.


Australia's Capital Cities

Thursday, July 09, 2015

AUSTRALIA’S CAPITAL CITIES: GROWTH, CHANGE & A FUTURE FORECAST

CAPITAL CITIES

Over 66% of Australians live in the greater metropolitan area of Australia’s 8 capital cities with Sydney being the largest (around 4.9 million), followed by Melbourne (4.5 million). Darwin is Australia’s smallest capital city, with a current population of around 144,000. The nation’s capital, Canberra, has a population of 394,000, larger than Darwin and Hobart combined.

The title of fastest growing city is held by Perth which has recorded 3.05% per year for the past 5 years whilst Hobart has the lowest rate of growth of only 0.67% per year over the same period. Sydney and Melbourne recorded growth of 1.5% and 1.95% per year over respectively.

In terms of population increase, Melbourne comes up on top with an increase of 95,655 people in the last year while Hobart only had an increase of 1,247 people in the same period. In fact Melbourne is growing by more people every 5 days than Hobart adds in an entire year. Sydney recorded an increase of 84,230 people in the last year and based on this increase will be Australia’s first city to reach 5 million, a milestone it will achieve by the middle of 2016.

However, at a state level there have been significant changes over the last 3 years in the population growth rate across Australia. Western Australia, which was the fastest growing state has seen this annual growth rate more than halve from a peak of 3.68% in 2012 to just 1.58% currently. Over the same period of time, Queensland’s growth has also declined significantly from 2.0% to 1.37% now, while Victoria’s consistent population growth rate of 1.75% makes it the fastest growing of any Australian state or territory.

Sydney has a population approximately 400,000 larger than Melbourne’s but Melbourne is growing by over 10,000 more people than Sydney year on year. Assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows, Melbourne will take Sydney’s title of Australia’s largest city in 2053 with both cities expected to reach a population of 8 million in 2055.

Perth’s rate of growth will see it overtake Brisbane in 2029 when they both have a population of just over 3 million. They currently have a population of 2.1 million and 2.3 million respectively.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT URBAN AREAS

The Gold Coast – Tweed Heads area has the largest population outside of the capital cities (almost 630,000) and also registered the largest increase in number of residents in 2009 to 2014. The 2nd largest urban area is the Newcastle – Maitland area but the Sunshine Coast had the 2nd largest increase in population even though they are ranked 4th in terms of population size. The City of Dubbo, with a population of 36,622 is the smallest of Australia’s significant urban areas.

Launceston recorded the lowest smallest rate of population increase between 2009 and 2014, growing by only 0.35% per year but they are ranked 13th in overall population, out of 32 significant urban areas. The Traralgon – Morwell area was the only area to experience a population decline with a decrease in population of 28 between 2013 and 2014.

On the other end of the scale, Ellenbrook is the fastest growing urban area by far, recorded growth of 8.35% per year between 2009 and 2014 followed by Melton which recorded growth of 5.32% per year over the same period.

AUSTRALIA'S CAPITALS: POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Sydney

  • Reach 5m in 2016, 6m in 2029, 7m in 2042, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.23%

Melbourne

  • Reach 5m in 2021, 6m in 2032, 7m in 2043, 8m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.44%

Brisbane

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2047
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.6%

Adelaide

  • Reach 1.5m in 2027
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.83%

Perth

  • Reach 3m in 2028, 4m in 2042, 5m in 2055
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 2.14%

Hobart

  • Reach 250,000 in 2034
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 0.47%

Darwin

  • Reach 200,000 in 2048
  • Average annual growth from 2016-2056 = 1.08%

Sydney vs Melbourne

  • Melbourne will overtake Sydney for the title of largest Australian city in 2053

Brisbane vs Perth

  • Perth will overtake Brisbane for the title of 3rd largest Australian city in 2029

*Data assuming medium levels of fertility, overseas migration, life expectancy, and interstate migration flows.

Sources: ABS, McCrindle

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