Housing Price Push in Australia’s Capital Cities due to Population Increase

Monday, August 19, 2013

Recent analysis by social researcher and demographer Mark McCrindle shows that over the past 5 years, there has been a significant housing shortage in Sydney, with a shortfall of 97,238 people (42,277 homes). The shortfall over the last several years has considerably waned when compared to 2008/2009 figures, but remains evidently visible.

The shortfall calculated in these figures is in fact likely to be even greater than the numbers represent. The following numbers are based on housing approvals, not constructions, and do not account for the growth of household demands coming from children leaving the parental home, the ageing population desiring smaller household sizes, and the growth of the couple-only household. These figures are therefore based solely on population growth figures, omitting the changing household data.

Housing undersupply in Sydney: Demographic growth and demand exceeding housing construction and supply


Housing approvals[1]

Population accounted for[2]

Population increase[3]

Shortfall (people)[4]
























68,142 (iv)







[1] Data from UDIA based on Grater Sydney. NB: Housing approvals are close to but less than housing construction and so the actual housing shortfall is likely larger than the one expressed here.

[2] More new homes in greater Sydney are medium-high density than detached homes. Nationally household size is 2.6 but for medium-high density it is around 1.9 therefore we have taken a household size of 2.3 for this forecast and so 110,000 new homes would meet the needs of 253,000 people.

[3] ABS demographic data, Greater Sydney population change. This population growth forecast is based on the average Sydney growth over the past 5 years (1.46%).

[4] The population growth minus the population accounted for.

Housing Prices Not Just Irrational Exuberance

This data shows that the rising property prices in our capital cities such as Sydney are driven by demographic demand that is greater than housing supply, as opposed to any “irrational exuberance.” Four decades ago the average house in Sydney was the equivalent of five times average earnings, by 1993 it had risen to six times annual earnings while today it is ten times average annual earnings!

For further demographic analysis and the latest insights, visit our Resources Page.

Welcome to our blog...

We have a passion for research that tells a story, that can be presented visually, that brings about change and improves organisations. And we hope these resources help you know the times.

Our Social Media Sites

Facebook | McCrindle Research Social Media YouTube | McCrindle Research Social Media Twitter | McCrindle Research Social Media Flickr | McCrindle Research Social Media Pinterest | McCrindle Research Social Media Google Plus | McCrindle Research Social Media LinkedIn | McCrindle Research Social Media Mark McCrindle Slideshare

Last 150 Articles


communication sector wide menai baby names australian community trends report brand live the dream property market Black Friday in Australia REIV National Conference the lucky country FPA sydney market christmas 2017 ACT Report hills shire urban development New Zealand high density apartments the hills Jura Australia acf15 deloitte winter blues conferences politics NSW fears NBRS trends of 2016 public speaking rumbling tummies mccrindle in the media bureau medicine coffee lovers Australian Trends life small business change impact celebration McCrindle Speaker educated marriage purpose environmental scanning demographic analysis social enquiry Financial Planning Week resource national crime rates clothing slideshare investor finance house price rise goal ageing lalor park population growth high density NEETs debt crows nest jobs staff researcher Res Vis future-proof ideas youth unemployment know the times professional development financial dreams alpha baby boomers travelling australian communities forum car social generations January 26th the changing face of Christmas research spirituality Australia Day young people demographic transformations apartments easter workplace priorities budget states gig census fail Wodonga property development plans logan news repayments happiness ashley mckenzie award winner school James Ward public speaker princess charlotte tattoos house price wellbeing etiquette mythbusting Tuesday Trends survey DIY Territory Mount Annan-Currant Hill income Christmas lunch property Western Australia cultural diversity households demographic Maxim Accounting Black Friday Sales report marketing education future report new office infographic wall owning a home research services money Valentine’s Day experience consumer salary divorce entrepreneurial conference presentation Queensland jobs of the future mining boom weather publication sydney metro dreaming going out video year 7 panel surnames language cultural diveristy PSI capital cities Tasmania blaxland cancelling plans university newspaper global financial crisis VET sector Scouts mobile HSC tv World Water Day india transport Deaths futurist research visualisation water aussie culture Royals social researchers population milestone charities identity Sydney’s south west bondi The ABC of XYZ schools students Research Director royal family 2015 Christmas in Australia organisational culture TAS staying in average aussie the hills shire wolloomooloo Hornsby Shire Council Willowdale wealth and income distribution young australians baby Tuesday Trend learn omnibus prince george rising house prices follow baby name trends ease of travel communicate national wealth future daily commute investment home ownership study employment shifts Christmas day weather housing market employers speakers pack insights eliane gender Caregiver gig economy social change screenagers insight Aussie optus snapshot lifestyle earn financial future grandparents paying to work sector hello fresh sports Work place sydneycity ACF meals typical australian demographics Canberra contiki weekly earnings Word Up Sydney cartodb google for education employmer suburb buildings younger generations social analyst couple professional speaker Charlotte rich 40 million faux-cilising 1994 Christmas presents community Population Clock career leader wedding entertainment group local community house prices work-life resilience ferry crime tea government TEDx Speaker australian social research Sydney population safe volunteer suburbs February 16 tertiary education global #censusfail schools balance CPI Assistant Store Manager suburban living shopper's pick data visualisation student father's day list environment Geoff Brailey Social Trend baby name predictions food insecurity English aged care affordable do people still change their surname after marriage? office opening research data IT Specialists "know the times" property price skills trends of 2017 optus my business awards showreel teach monarchy cost of living eliane miles moreton bay CBD professional services trends Netflix house statistics WA ultimo Jura Coffee tuesday cancel plans participants workplace culture group session learner Aussies networking wealth and income internships not-for-profit quote presentation the future sydney event EFF Foodbank Australia 2013 Kirsten Brewer emerging generations SRE learning styles growing population sector wide study media release victoria education research Gen Y mccrindle research baby names australia report engage Christmas Stats breakfast unaffordable australian real estate story state business JOMO greatness personalities The Daily Edition Australian Communities Trends builders Australia Day 2017 education sector future of shopping business performance organisations teaching equip Generation X Australia street collaboration local communities marrickville high school financial independence mentor Gen X earnings curiosity Gen Z Expert post rationalism dream christmas social media ACF17 anzac SMART giving mythbusters challenge innovative Crime Rates Merry Christmas ashley fell new york times South Australia hills aged care puzzle christianity australian culturally diverse national private wealth energy business index leadership workshop city affordability Australian Census financial personal growth focus group stats rental stress DESTEL grave decision global generations wage 24,000,000 Performance Sentiment Index geomapping fresh Bathburst townhouses cooking Australians results supply and demand relational perth sydneysiders technology internship census results internet cars Andrew Duffin Australian Population entrepreneurs of today twentyseventeen 23 million megatrends McCrindle Keynote Speakers Love micro apartments sustainable relevant maiden names Northern beaches Event micro apartment Kiwi future of work screenage emerging trends What is food insecurity? real leadersip unemployment mover and shaker ACT demographer 2016 cold responsive forum 24 million Christmas season world youth day rent sentiments cost living seasons commute university degree NT social shifts sophie renton land of the middle class goals case study Vocational education teleworking criminal school students faith census 2016 facts christian analysis TED talk keynote speaker recap shopping award faith and belief happy holidays online shopping communications data analysis McCridle Myth healthy future ACF2017 Queensland: QLD indonesia rule keeper Australian Families graphs mccrindle tea events consumerism vegetarian tableau wealth distribution gen alpha Australian communities friends workshop sydney property market online huffington post FOMO rise of local Cobbitty-Leppington royal baby spend Black Friday social researcher parents Elderslie-Harrington park media housing growth increasing densification growth hornsby sunny days google community engagement students Northern Beaches motivate NFP event Christchurch emerging technologies teachers interactive presentations social research capital city Wellington social commentator men Northern Territory kate middleton rain cancelling event Melbourne trend tuesday entrepreneur Financial Planning Association of Australia collaborative speakers holiday keynote mccrindle Christmas data Australian Bureau of Statistics financial fears global generation 1980 royal influence food bank digital economy generational trends christmas trees ACF 2016 TDE local trend TEDx selfie gen z hunger generation Z home forecasting volunteers pyrmont future proof digital seasons greetings volunteering women focus groups urban taskforce McCrindle Speakers define Financial Planning Association financial planning communities donate 10 years low density generation VET census child care demographic trends cash not for profit research wealth baby boom learning narcissism infographics click mccrinlde demography Australian community trends HR earning 2020 urban who is generation z New Zeland church summer outsourcing mother's day belief domestic norwest Sydney keynote speaker professional work mates Australian demographics family 2017 office economic casual Research Executive brands survey design program gold coast debate annual income 2014 child hunger Hunter Valley poor food names millionth employmee nfp research report poker master australia renting litter china divorce rate VIC the australian dream Australian Dream Generation Y Northern Beaches Christian School speajer household Sydney Lifestyle Study Births product trends analyst Education Future Forum generation alpha meetings Business analysis wages waverton dreams visual daily telegraph commuters data growth of sydney children USA bus socialites community event social issues housing trends pharmacy sydney hills marriages Wagga Wagga visualisation social analysis Engineering Manager ageing population intern global generaion teacher choice workers research on coffee research in the media average Australian cloudy days surname ABS culture baby name Australian Home dessert school satisfaction woolworths urban living index shopping centre SMSF future proofing coffee holidays stay home hopes socialising australian communities trends report housing affordability Do It Yourself event Mark McCrindle dare to dream sydneysider public transport social impact Understanding and Engaging with Generation Z long weekend Skilling 2016 census results conference speaker Australian schools careers US Millennial Retail Adelaide training media commentary proactive REIV Conference winter optimistic youth 1975 brisbane australians staying home more census data System's Architect royal conference engagement innovation Christmas day religion vegemite forecast residents 2012 Mark McCrindle in the media population map shbc sunburnt country tips global retail baby names report chairty volunteering data care support neutral bay millennials professional presenters trades social life leadership darwin Channel Seven 1995 infographic pharmacies 2016 census thought leadership charity Hills Shire Council the average aussie ipswich work retirement public holiday home owner social trends Duchess of Cambridge educhat 2009 moderators guide wealth inequality market research Sydney Hills Business Chamber potts point TED train nativity scene Real Estate Institute of Victoria families groceries investing future generations SA non profit workforce storytelling speaker millenials society trends parenting qualitative research future of education education future authenticity data analyst cica ethnography population average sydneysider sun 1968 GPO social lives toys donation the great screenage social commentary education overcast customer society research pack brand experience friendship faux-ciliser world maiden year 12 middle class Channel 7 commuting thrive offenders Macquarie University changing face of sydney office space Lower Hunter Region easy rider work from home NBRS Architecture not for profit faux-cilise manly in depth interviews sydney speaker high density living housing Real Estate travel economy urban living New South Wales Lower Hunter hobart area village media activity mateship renter of the future mortgage