The McCrindle Blog

Numbers and people have long been two of the most important aspects of an organisation. Demographics is the merging of these two fundamentals and has a direct impact on the ability of organisations to effectively engage their clients and staff.

Why Demographic Analysis?

Demographic analysis gives insight into the age, sex and geographic composition of a population. There are many other characteristics of a population that can also be explored such as household income, employment status and educational background. Whilst it may be seemingly broad in scope, it is an essential first step to understanding your clients and staff.

Are your clientele predominantly Generation Y or are they Baby Boomers, are they in the higher income brackets or of lower socio economics? Asking these questions allows you to delve deeper into how to tailor your offering to your target market. Demographic shifts in society directly impact upon an organisation’s ability to shape their marketing, products and services to best suit their clients. Densification, mobility, purchasing behaviours, technology use, media consumption – these are all key measures which demographic and market analysis will help you understand.

In a constantly changing society, demographic analysis provides insight and visibility into the otherwise unseeable influences on our organisations and businesses.

Some McCrindle examples:

  

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It’s not the July count but the August one that will be most revealing for Australia. It’s the Census not the Election that will tell us most about ourselves. The election will reveal a lot about our political persuasions and policy preferences however it is the census that will offer far more clarity and detail about our nation. And in a political era where policy and budgetary settings extend beyond the election cycle, the data and forecasts delivered twice a decade in the census are becoming increasingly essential.

If the election is a national compass that will set something of the policy direction for Australia over the next 3 years, the census is a map that shows us who we are as a society in a big picture sense, as well as the contours that highlight our varied local communities and their detailed needs. The political custodians of the national compass will need a good understanding of the lay of the land, the changing terrain and the context in which national leadership operates if they are to guide us effectively.

The map this year will show a more complex Australia, more delineations than in the past culturally, economically and socially. The land of wide open spaces is becoming more urbanised, densified and diverse. The land of the middle class is showing more fractures and there are some fault lines emerging across this big land of opportunity. However, despite the differing terrains across this nation of communities, the census will show a sense of unity amongst the diversity- a contiguous landscape of varied elements.

The changes the census will show can be summed up in five words:

Bigger

Not only will the numbers show that we exceed 24 million, but that we’ve more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1966 Census when we hadn’t even hit the 12 million mark. Sydney will also be shown to have just hit the 5 million milestone- the first Australian city to do so and also more than twice the population of 50 years ago of just 2.4 million.

Older

Our population profile will no longer be a “population pyramid” as for the first time there will be more Australians aged over 55’s than under 20. The 1966 Census showed less than 1 million Australians aged 65 or over while this one will show more than 3.5 million. Those in the “aged” category of 85 plus have gone from less than 55,000 then to almost half a million now.

Urban

for the first time this Census will show one in four Australian households live in townhouses or apartments rather than detached houses- the highest figure ever, up from just one in ten in 1966. The six state capitals plus Canberra have grown from just over half the population (6.7 million people) to more than two-thirds (16 million) in half a century.

Diverse

In 5 decades the proportion of Australians born overseas has increased from 17% to more than 30%. Back then, 90% of migrants were born in Europe with those born in Asia comprising less than 1% of the population while today China, India and Vietnam are all in the Top 5 countries of birth.

Mobile

Australians travel more than ever and getting to work by private vehicle is still the main transport mode, used by 2 in 3 workers. More than half of all households have at least 2 cars compared to less than 1 in 10 households in 1966. Back then, 40% of households had no car compared to just 8.6% today.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics do a superb job in providing such a detailed social map, updated every 5 years, regarded internationally as world-leading and provided in full, free to all to access for their own journey. Like any good map it shows all the peaks and valleys without agenda or ideology. No gloss needed- the data provides the picture and it is up to those who access it to chart a way forward any point out the pitfalls. As we each plot our own points on August 9 we are in the process charting a national map that will provide navigation into the next decade- a decade that will likely be the most transformative in Australia’s history.

At McCrindle, our team of speakers are commissioned to deliver over 120 presentations to a wide range of audiences and clients, per year. These presentations consist of conference keynotes, training workshops, PD sessions, executive briefings, launch events as well as research presentations.

As expert communicators, we understand how to communicate data effectively, how to communicate a story and the art of delivering a presentation that doesn’t just inform your audience, but inspires them as well.

Throughout a presentation, it’s important to structure your content and delivery. Here are four I’s that we have developed which provide a structural overview of how to engage your audience when delivering a presentation.  

Interest

While the content of a presentation is generally the focus, creating interest in your audience before moving to the bulk of your presentation is key to engagement. Have you heard the saying, “When the student is ready the teacher will appear?” Well the same applies here. Creating interest, attention and focus from your audience prepares them to engage with the content of your presentation.

So how do you create this interest?

A strong introduction (that utilises the 4 C's) will help to create this Interest, whereby you build a Connection with your audience, establish your Credibility and provide Context for where this session fits in the overall scheme of things. Now, you are ready to move into your Content.

Instruct

After establishing interest with your audience and bringing them to a place where they are ready to listen to what you have to say, you can move to communicating the main content of your presentation. In addition to you being a presenter, consider yourself to be an instructor.

Involve

With attention spans being shorter than they have ever been before, when presenting we need to not just instruct but involve our audiences - particuarly the younger generations who are used to interacting with everything around them. Incorporating multi-modal delivery, discussions and activities within your presentation will help to involve your audience and keep them engaged with the material you are presenting.

Inspire

Lastly, and if not most importantly, an effective and engaging presenter will Inspire their audience. Inspiring is about motivation and application, about moving your audience from the rational to the emotional. Connecting not just with their head but with their heart as well. What do you want to send them out with?

About our Communication Skills Workshops

In our message-saturated society, getting effective cut-through, engagement and response is a critical challenge. This session will teach and model effective communication based on an understanding of the influence patterns of today’s audiences and strategies to best connect. This session covers:

• Understanding workplace presentations
• Preparing your presentation
• Delivering your presentation
• Mastering professional presentation techniques
• Presenting complex data in engaging ways
  
  
  

About Ashley Fell - Team Leader of Communications at McCrindle

Ashley Fell is a social researcher, trends analyst and Team Leader of Communications at the internationally recognised McCrindle. As a trends analyst she understands the need for organisations to communicate with the emerging generations to effectively engage and motivate them. 

From her experience in managing media relations, social media platforms, content creation and event management, Ashley is well positioned to advise how to achieve cut through in these message-saturated times. Her expertise is in training and equipping leaders and teams on how to communicate across generational barriers.

Land of the middle class?

Australia has long been labelled the land of the middle class but the latest analysis of the Australian Bureau of Statistics wealth and income data shows that this is less the case today.

Household income by quintiles

This infographic of annual household income by quintiles (20% categories, each comprising around 2 million of Australia’s 10 million households) shows the spread of total earnings. While the average household annually earns just over $107,000, the top 1 in 5 earns more than twice this (exceeding $260,000) while the bottom 1 in 5 takes home around one-fifth of this (a little over $22,000). This means that while the bottom fifth of households get 4% of all income, the top fifth get almost half of all earnings (49%).

Highest fifth have incomes 12 times the lowest fifth

The top quintile in gross terms earn almost as much as the other 80% of households combined. In ratio form, the highest quintile households average 12 times the average bottom quintile income.

Gini coefficient shows growing income divides

The Gini coefficient is a measure of income spread, with 0 being perfect equality and 1 being total inequality. The latest data shows that it is now at its highest (most unequal) level ever at 0.446 compared to 0.417 in the mid 1990’s. In the 20 years since, average household gross incomes have increased 60% from $66,196 to $107,276 today while over the same period, incomes of the top 1 in 5 households (highest quintile) have increased by 74% from $149,552 to $260,104.

Highest earners also had highest income growth

In the decade since 2005-06, most of the household categories have seen income increases of 18-19% with an average increase of 24% ($20,956 increase from $86,320 to the current $107,276) while the highest quintile has enjoyed income increases of 30% ($60,528 higher than a decade ago, up from $199,576 to $260,104).

Household wealth by quintile

Accumulated earnings are best represented by net wealth, and this is where the changing economic landscape is even more dramatically presented. While the average Australian household has net wealth of $809,900, the highest quintile household on average has a net wealth more than three times this ($2,514,400) while the lowest quintile household wealth is just a fraction of this (4% of the average wealth, or $35,500). The lowest 20% of Australian households own less than 1% (0.9%) of the national private wealth while the highest 20% own 62% of the national private wealth.

Wealthiest 20% own 71 times that of the lowest 20%

The wealth of the highest quintile households on average is 71 times that of the lowest quintile households. While the average Australian household has seen wealth increase by 6% in the last 2 years (an increase of $45,400), the highest fifth of households have averaged increases of 8% (an increase of $189,500). Only upon reaching the fourth of five quintiles does the average household net wealth ($830,600) exceed the average house price ($720,000), while the highest quintile households on average have a net worth exceeding 3 average Australian homes.

Wealthy have net worth many multiples of income

The net wealth of the lowest quintile is just 1.6 times annual income, for the average household wealth is 7.5 times incomes while for the highest quintile, their wealth is almost 10 their average annual income, and more than 23 times the average Australian household annual income.

What is shaping our built environment?

The first is population growth. Australia has just reached 24 million which means we have added an extra million people in less than 3 years, and most of this growth is in our larger capital cities. This is creating a shift from suburban to urban living; from the traditional horizontal communities to the new vertical ones. In our largest capital cities, two-thirds of all new housing approvals are high or medium density rather than detached homes. This densification is creating walkable communities, multi-use areas where people live, work and play in a more localised space, and of course increased access to transit and transport hubs. The other factor shaping developments is affordability. With rising house prices, Australians are looking for financially sustainable options which meet the needs of both lifestyle and affordability, and create the flexibility for our homes to change in tune with our needs and lifestyles.

What are the current trends and will they last?

While design trends come and go with the changing fashions, there are some broader development trends that are here to stay. The increased access to open spaces, in-door out-door areas, balconies, natural light and bringing vegetation into urban environments are all timeless trends that resonates with our temperate climate and needs. Similarly, with food central to our social environment, open-plan kitchens and meal areas in homes and open social spaces in offices are trends we will see continue.

How is technology affecting it?

Today’s technology is seamlessly integrated into our lives, and we are seeing the same seamless integration into our homes. The internet of things means that lighting, sound, temperature, entertainment and security in our domestic environments are all manageable through our personal devices. The decade ahead will see our pantries and fridges talk to our devices to update shopping lists, our home entertainment experience continue playing seamlessly on our portable devices and our hydrogen cars help power our homes.

Image source: The Clipsal Smart Home range (courtesy of www.clipsal.com)

What are the demographic trends?

Homes of the future will have the flexibility to accommodate multiple generations living under the one roof. They will meet the changing needs of a more culturally diverse community and have clever innovations to facilitate support to Australians living independently in their homes to a much older age than we currently see.

What does the future hold?

While Generation Z, who are just starting their careers, will have to pay more for their homes in the future, these buildings and the built environment in which they sit will far exceed what their parents experienced in their first homes. Not only will the technologies and fittings in the home be exciting but the community spaces, café culture and neighbourhood amenities will continue to adjust and adapt to meet the lifestyle expectations of the 21st Century generations.

#TuesdayTrend

As Australia’s social researchers, we take the pulse of the nation. We research communities. We survey society. We analyse the trends. And we communicate the findings.

Every Tuesday we release a trend about Australia for #TuesdayTrend. Be sure to follow, share and interact with us on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook.

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ABOUT RESEARCH VISUALISATION

In a world of big data- we’re for visual data. We believe in the democratisation of information- that research should be accessible to everyone not just to the stats junkies. We’re passionate about turning tables into visuals, data into videos and reports into presentations. As researchers, we understand the methods but we’re also designers and we know what will communicate, and how to best engage. We’re in the business of making you look good and your data make sense.

For more information, please get in touch – we’d love to hear from you:

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Only occasionally in history do massive demographic changes combine with huge social shifts, ongoing generational transitions and unprecedented technological innovation so that within the span of a decade society altogether alters. 

Australia is currently in the midst of one such transformation.

Schools are not only in the midst of these massive changes, but they’re actually at the front line of it. Schools bridge more generation gaps than any other sector, because their end client, the student is in the youngest generations, and yet the average age of employee in education is one of the oldest ages.

Education is bridging more generation gaps than almost every other sector and of course the young people are driving some many of these trends – the technology ones, the social trends, and obviously generational changes. When it comes to education as we know it today, it really is a 19th Century concept with classes, curriculums and examinations. Most of the buildings there are 20th Century in their nature and yet it’s the 21st Century generation that we’re educating. That again highlights the challenge that exists for school today.

When we think about those youngest generations entering school, they’re going to live longer, work later, they’re going to work across more careers and some of those jobs they’ll be working in don’t currently exist. While we feel we’re at the start of this 21st Century, they’ll still be in the workforce as we’re edging closer to the 22nd Century.

It is imperative that we recognise the gap that we are bridging and the foundation of education that we’re providing to this generation, who through the midst of our challenges in this nation, in the midst of the middle of this century, they will be the leaders.

Mark McCrindle and Brad Entwistle discuss the key megatrends reshaping Australia and how they might change the ways non-government schools think about the future and the next generation of students. Mark concludes the interview with his biggest insight from his research and how that will impact schools to be relevant and attract students in the future.

LISTEN TO THE FULL PODCAST HERE

ABOUT MARK MCCRINDLE

Mark is an award-winning social researcher, best-selling author, TedX speaker and influential thought leader, and is regularly commissioned to deliver strategy and advice to the boards and executive committees of some of Australia’s leading organisations.

Mark’s understanding of the key social trends as well as his engaging communication style places him in high demand in the press, on radio and on television shows, such as Sunrise, Today, The Morning Show, ABC News 24 and A Current Affair.

His research firm counts amongst its clients more than 100 of Australia’s largest companies and his highly valued reports and infographics have developed his regard as a data scientist, demographer, futurist and social commentator.

DOWNLOAD MARK'S SPEAKING PACK HERE

44% of Australian jobs (5.1 million current jobs) are at risk from digital disruption in the next 20 years, and 75% of Australia’s fastest growing occupations require STEM Skills - Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths. Yet digitalisation is not the only thing affecting the change in tomorrow’s job market.

Population trends both nationally and regionally are redefining Australia. Demographic and social trends, such as emerging cultural diversity, the implications of an ageing population, household transformations, and increased mobility are creating significant changes. Workforce trends such as teleworking, tenure shifts, multi-career expectations, and emerging attraction, retention, and engagement factors are informing the demands on 21st century workers.

As these technological, generational, educational, and demographic shifts redefine job demands, it’s more important than ever before for individuals to be innovative, collaborative, proactive, and responsive to ensure they remain future-proofed for tomorrow’s workforce.

What does it mean to stay innovative?

In the next 10 years, there will be significant shifts to the labour market. There is a basic reality around job functions in developed economies with a relatively high cost of labour: everything that can be automated, will be automated, and every role that can be offshored to lower cost-base countries will be offshored. However, technology and business innovation will create new and diverse roles in areas that technology can’t compete. Roles that require creative input, people-focus, leadership skills or high-level communication talent can be futureproofed as they are not be effectively replaceable by technology.

Being Collaborative

It’s important not just to focus on academic outcomes but the people skills; not just the learning, but on the ability to work well with others. 1997 was the first year in which we began spending more time looking at screens than in in face to face interaction, and today, individuals spend over 10 hours on screens every day. In tomorrow’s job market, if someone has a good ability to communicate, motivate, and engage – they’ll go far.

Staying Proactive

In today’s flat-structured work environments, people need to be self-leaders and managers and stay self-directed. In previous decades it was the norm to have a very structured workplace with a chain of command where employers were looking for compliance rather than proactive innovation. Today there is the need for a self-starter mentality in every organisation – for employees at all levels to take charge and show proactive initiative.

Being Responsive

It’s important to keep eyes on the external environment. Individuals who can not only remain experts at their craft but extend their knowledge to various domain areas will stay future-proofed. A career that is future-proofed may in fact by its very nature change and adjust nearly every year. Be responsive and observe what’s happening around you.

By being innovative, collaborative, proactive, and responsive to the changes taking place, individuals can navigate the challenge of being future-proofed for tomorrow’s workforce.

ABOUT ELIANE MILES

Eliane Miles is a social researcher, trends analyst and Director of Research at the internationally recognised McCrindle. As a data analyst she understands the power of big data to inform strategic direction. Managing research across multiple sectors and locations, she is well positioned to understand the mega trends transforming the workplace, household and consumer landscapes. Her expertise is in telling the story embedded in the data and communicating the insights in visual and practical ways.

From the key demographic transformations such as population growth and the ageing workforce to social trends such as changing household structures and emerging lifestyle expectations, from generational change to the impact of technology, Eliane delivers research based presentations dealing with the big global and national trends.

With academic qualifications in community engagement and postgraduate studies in international development and global health, Eliane brings robust, research-based content to her engaging presentations and consulting. As a social researcher, she has been interviewed on these topics on prominent television programs such as National Nine News and Today, as well as on radio and in online media.

DOWNLOAD ELIANE'S SPEAKERS PACK HERE

To have Eliane present at your next event, please feel free to get in touch via email to kim@mccrindle.com.au or call through to 02 8824 3422

This infographic is based on analysis of the ABS Household Income and Wealth data released in late 2015 and 2013. It gives a picture of how both income and wealth is distributed across the generations of households in Australia and how it has been changing.

Generation Y: High incomes, low wealth

While Generation Y aged 25 to 34 are income rich, earning in gross household terms $113,152 per annum, their net worth is modest, at $268,800. As they enter their mid-30’s, they are getting closer to their key earnings years however such has been the low wages growth over the last two years, their household incomes have only increased by $5,356, or 5% since 2013. While Gen Y households on average earn more per annum than the older Boomers aged 55-64 who are rapidly easing out of their full-time working roles, these Boomers managed income increases almost three times that of the younger generation over this period ($14,040). This 14% increase in annual household incomes came about because the older Boomers were reliant not on wages growth but investment income which has seen solid increases over the last two years.

Generation Stagnation

It is ironic, and unfortunate that the emerging generation of wealth accumulators, moving up the career ladder have seen far smaller income increases (amounts just keeping up with inflation) than the generations that are easing out of employment or having ceased employment. Indeed, the generation aged 65+ managed much higher income increases (16%) than the younger working age Gen Y’s.

Wealth compared across the generations

The generational financial inequities are even more pronounced when analysing net wealth by generational cohort. While Gen Y have a household net worth of $268,800, it is less than half that of the Gen Xers who are just a decade older. The highest net worth generation in Australia are the Boomers aged 55-64 who not only have a net wealth almost 5 times that of the generation of their children (Gen Y) but they still have a decade or more of earnings and wealth accumulating ahead of them.

The $1 million households

While Gen Y have seen a wealth increase of 9% since 2012 ($21,647), the mid 50’s Boomers have seen a 14% wealth increase ($153,335) with their wealth rising since 2012 from $1,086,365 to $1,239,700. Therefore, not only does the average Australian household aged over 55 have a net worth exceeding $1 million, but, due largely to rising property prices over the last few years, it is also seeing the fastest wealth increases. When the demographic size of each generation is compared against their corresponding economic share, the differences are stark. Australians aged 25 to 34 are equal in size to the Over 65’s at 3.6 million, or 15% of the total population of 24 million. However, the net wealth of Generation Y is well below this population share at just 7% of the national private wealth compared to the Builders generation who have a share of 26%, almost twice their demographic proportion.

The quarter who own more than half

In total the Baby Boomers (45 to 64) are a quarter of the population (25%) but own more than half of Australia’s national wealth (53%). Their economic footprint is twice as large as their demographic footprint. While the Gen Y’s have decades of wealth accumulating ahead of them which will grow their net worth footprint, it is unlikely that Australia will ever see the likes of today’s Boomers again where a quarter own more than half. The Boomers have been the beneficiaries of a near 50-year economic miracle, and they are unlikely to ease out of this accumulating any time soon.

The $3 trillion wealth transfer

But there is some hope for the emerging generations who have stagnated in wealth and have been priced out of property. The households of Australians aged 55+ currently own a combined $2.8 trillion and over the next two decades will pass on much of this. By the time they move from the growing to the spending side of this accumulation, it will have exceeded the $3 trillion level. Therefore, the decades ahead will see the biggest intergenerational wealth transfer in Australia’s history and many of the younger generations will be the main beneficiaries.